OSCAR PREDICTIONS!!!

Now, finally, after having seen The Master I feel like I can give my true and honest opinions about the top eight categories (Picture, Director, Acting, and Writing) as well as a decent guess on the other categories. So here’s how this is going to work: I’m going to start with who I think WILL win (aka my predictions), then who COULD get an upset, next who SHOULD win of the nominees, and finally who SHOULD win if they weren’t nominated. There are a few cases where that happened and I feel they should be outlined. However if I think one of the nominees is the best of the year, I won’t outline the fourth category. Finally, if I haven’t seen any of the nominees (Documentary Feature….) I won’t outline who should win.  So let’s get started…

Best Picture

Will Win: Argo – Why? Momentum. The only reason that the momentum won’t be the determining factor…

Could Win: Silver Linings Playbook – Harvey Weinstein and his campaigning machine. It’s happened before (1998 with Shakespeare in Love) and the actors (largest voting branch) love it.

Should Win: Django Unchained –Tarantino has never used violence more effectively. He has never developed his characters more interestingly and damn it, has never been as entertaining since Pulp Fiction.

Best Director

Will Win: Spielberg – Why? Momentum. The love of Argo hasn’t slowed Spielberg’s momentum to the Best Director statue. Angry Argo haters will flock to Spielberg to make sure he takes something home.

Could Win: Ang Lee – Why? There are also a lot of Lincoln/Spielberg haters out there (I’m one of them). Lee also had a director’s dream job of the limited space of his boat which looks like the director’s work, not the actors.

Should Win: David O. Russel – Why? He takes what would be a clichéd story and turns it into a wonderfully enveloping experience. The direction is simultaneously his most relatable and most caring and was the best of this year’s crop.

Best Actor

Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis – He’s playing ABRAHAM LINCOLN.

Could Win: Bradley Cooper –  Weinstein and his campaign machine!

Should Win (of nominees) – Bradley Cooper – He showed real depth and diversity with this role and played the line between comedic, manic, and dramatic masterfully.

Should Win (of those not nominated): Jamie Foxx – Tarantino’s best character bar none. Quiet thoughtful intense development  of a well written character, Foxx was the highlight of Django and the year for me.

Best Actress

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence – Weinstein and the Machine (see above).

Could Win: Emmanuel Riva – Nostalgia and Momentum

Should Win: Lawrence – She is the Best Actress of the year (Between this and the Hunger Games) and also plays the comedic/dramatic line very very very well.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones – This is not a lock, but I think it’s too soon to give Waltz his second statue.

Could Win: Christoph Waltz – Maybe I’m wrong?

Should Win (of the nominees): Tommy Lee Jones – It’s the only thing about the movie I really loved. Jones is a West Wing Style bulldog, a liberal lion, and gives a great performance.

Should Win (not nominated): Samuel L Jackson – For being the yin to Foxx’s yang. For playing the greatest Uncle Tom ever put to screen and to be the REAL villain of Django Unchained.

Supporting Actress

Will Win: Anne Hathaway – She’s the world’s darling now.

Could Win: Sally Field – Some people really hated Les Mis

Should Win: Anne Hathaway – Did you see her sing I dreamed a dream?

Original Screenplay

Will Win: Django Unchained – They’ll want to give Tarantino something

Could Win: Amour – The M word. Momentum!

Should Win: Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Andersen has the most sentimental and touching script of the past decade, easily.

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Lincoln – This is a bit odd, but I think Lincoln’s slow politics will overtake Argo’s flashy thriller in the writing category.

Could Win: Beasts of the Southern Wild – If it wins anything, it will be this.

Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook – Funny and touching, realistic and postmodern. A brilliantly well written film.

                      …the rest won’t have explanations…

Animated Feature

Will Win: Brave

Could Win: Wreck-it-Ralph

Should Win: Wreck-it-Ralph

Foreign Language Film

Will Win: Amour

Could Win: War Witch (go Canada)

Should Win: Amour

Documentary Feature

Will Win – Searching for Sugar Man

Could Win – The Invisible War

Original Score

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: Argo

Should Win (nominated): Skyfall

Should Win (not nominated): Zero Dark Thirty

Original Song

Will Win: Skyfall

Could Win: Life of Pi

Should Win: Skyfall

Sound Editing

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: Argo

Should Win: Skyfall

Sound Mixing

Will Win: Les Mis

Could Win: Life of Pi

Should Win: Skyfall

Production Design

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: Les Mis

Should Win: The Hobbit

Cinematography

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: Skyfall

Should Win (nominated): Skyfall

Should Win (not nominated): Silver Linings Playbook

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: The Hobbit

Could Win: Les Mis

Should Win: The Hobbit

Costume Design

Will Win: Snow White and the Huntsman

Could Win: Anna Karenina

Should Win: Les Mis

Editing

Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Could Win: Argo

Should Win: Argo

Visual Effects

Will Win: The Avengers

Could Win: Life of Pi

Should Win: Prometheus

 

Documentary – Short

Will Win – Monday’s at Racine

Could Win – Inocente

Live Action – Short

Will Win – Asad

Could Win – Henry

Animated – Short

Will Win – Paperman

Could Win – Fresh Guacamole

 

So there they are. My Oscar voting tally will consist of 2 points for every correct answer, 1 point for every upset, a shot for every should win that wins, and 200 points if a non-nominee wins. The total number of points is 48. We’ll see how I do.

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